Spain and France Set Pace as Tuchel's England Eye 2026 Glory

The 2026 World Cup is taking shape nicely, and Europe looks set to dominate proceedings once again – though South America's traditional powerhouses refuse to go quietly.

The bookmakers have Spain and France locked at the top of the odds, with England lurking just behind them as third choice. Argentina and Brazil round out a top five that tells you everything about how seriously the betting markets take pedigree in this competition.

The Pretenders

Belgium completed their qualifying campaign unbeaten and hammered the United States 5-2 in March, yet Roberto Martinez's men remain unconvincing as World Cup winners. Norway, meanwhile, have made their first World Cup appearance since 1998 on the back of Erling Haaland's extraordinary qualifying haul – the man single-handedly dragged them to eight straight wins, including home and away demolitions of Italy.

The Netherlands scraped through after a stuttering start to their campaign but eventually saw off Poland with something to spare. Their squad bristles with Premier League experience, past and present. Germany, despite Julian Nagelsmann's bullish talk of ambition and dressing room energy following a 1-0 dismantling of the Dutch, then stumbled in the Nations League semi-finals against Portugal without the injured Jamal Musiala. Their qualifying campaign was a curious affair – they started with a whimper against Slovakia before thrashing the same opponents 6-0 – but two consecutive group-stage exits at recent tournaments hardly inspire confidence.

Portugal qualified comfortably enough despite wobbles in Dublin, with Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, somehow certain to be there. His 143 international goals were built on rather more actual scoring than that total suggests. Beating both Germany and Spain to claim the Nations League crown was a statement, even if a 0-0 draw with Scotland had threatened to derail their campaign entirely.

The South American Question

Brazil underwhelmed at Copa America and looked unconvincing in qualifying, with their last World Cup final appearance now a quarter-century away. Yet it's Brazil – the romance, the attacking talent, Carlo Ancelotti in charge – and nobody quite writes them off.

Argentina hold both the World Cup and Copa America trophies and were commanding throughout South American qualifying, yet they're rated as less likely winners than England. The only real argument? An ageing squad that's beginning to show its wear.

England's Conundrum

Tuchel's men reached the Euro 2024 final through means that remain somewhat mysterious and now face the worst right-wing press of any European finalist. A Nations League defeat to Greece stung, though they salvaged some pride in Athens. Eight qualifying wins, eight clean sheets – yet those performances looked remarkably unconvincing for much of the campaign. A 1-0 squeaker against Andorra, followed by a 2-0 home victory against the same opposition, hardly set pulses racing. Then came a distinctly ropey friendly loss to Senegal.

The second half of qualifying proved far more convincing, with England stringing together eight consecutive victories without conceding. It was enough to nudge them above France in the betting, before those dreadful March friendlies knocked them back down again. Sixty years without winning a major tournament is now a more sobering statistic than you might imagine – the gap from now to 1966 is longer than from 1966 to the release of Three Lions.

The Favourites

France have contested the last two World Cup finals and show no sign of relinquishing their position among the elite. Didier Deschamps' continuity at the helm, combined with their Nations League group win and third-place finish over Germany – thanks to Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise – suggests they're hitting form at exactly the right moment. They cruised through qualifying with an embarrassment of riches in their squad and backed it up with friendly victories over Colombia and Brazil in March.

Spain, the European champions, somehow lost the Nations League final to Portugal but have been otherwise imperious. Just two points dropped and two goals conceded across their qualifying campaign tells you everything. They might lack a world-class striker, but then again, they usually do – and it rarely stops them.