Newcastle Face Stern Test in Qarabag as Magpies Chase Champions League Progress

Eddie Howe's Newcastle United head to the Azersun Arena on Wednesday evening for their opening Champions League play-off round fixture, marking the Magpies' first venture into the competition's knockout stages.

The Tyneside club's previous Champions League campaigns have all ended in the group phase—eliminated in 2023 and 1998, with a second group stage exit in 2003. This time around, they scraped through with 14 points in this season's group, just two points shy of automatic qualification to the round of 16.

Newcastle arrive in Azerbaijan on the back of impressive recent form, having secured consecutive away victories across all competitions. They dispatched Tottenham 2-1 in the Premier League before dismantling Aston Villa 3-1 in the FA Cup, giving them genuine momentum heading into this tie.

Their opponents have also qualified for the knockout rounds for the first time, though they scraped through with considerably less fanfare. Qarabag finished 22nd in the group stage with 10 points, though their record in this competition has been mixed—a 6-0 hammering at Liverpool contrasts sharply with notable victories over Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt at home, plus a respectable 2-2 draw with Chelsea.

Team News

Howe faces a mounting injury crisis heading into the fixture. Bruno Guimaraes, the club captain, has travelled to Brazil for ongoing hamstring treatment and will miss approximately two months of action. Sven Botman remains sidelined with back discomfort, while Emil Krafth and Fabian Schar are both facing extended absences following surgery on knee and ankle injuries respectively.

Lewis Miley has not featured since January's 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain, and Tino Livramento is unavailable until March with a hamstring complaint. Yoane Wissa missed the Villa Park trip but should return for the second leg.

One silver lining comes with Joelinton potentially available after returning to training; the midfielder has missed the last six matches with a groin issue.

Qarabag head coach Gurban Gurbanov has relatively few selection headaches, with backup goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev the sole absentee. The Azerbaijani side showed consistency in the group phase, with nine players starting every match. Marko Jankovic and Jonathan Montiel are expected to fill the two remaining spots in their starting XI.

The Numbers Game

Qarabag arrive as considerable underdogs. They remain winless in nine meetings with English opposition—eight defeats and that single Chelsea draw. Their defensive record this season has been alarming; they've conceded at least two goals in each of their last six Champions League outings, with only bottom-placed Kairat (22) having shipped more goals than their 21 this campaign.

However, they've shown attacking prowess themselves, scoring two or more goals in eight of their previous 11 European matches. Camillo Duran has notably opened the scoring in Qarabag's last two home Champions League matches.

Newcastle's away record in Europe under Howe makes for less comfortable reading. They've won just one of seven Champions League away games, drawing four and losing two. Defensively, they're vulnerable too—no clean sheet since the 3-0 victory over PSV in January, with at least one goal conceded in seven consecutive matches.

Yet Anthony Gordon has been a revelation in the competition this season, netting six goals—only Kylian Mbappé (13), Harry Kane (eight), and Erling Haaland (seven) have more. Gordon or Harvey Barnes have either scored or assisted in 76% of Newcastle's Champions League goals this term (13 from 17).

A Newcastle victory would see Howe join Bobby Robson and Graham Potter on five Champions League wins as an English manager—a notable milestone.

Match Details

Qarabag versus Newcastle kicks off at 17:45 GMT on Wednesday, February 18. Coverage is available on TNT Sports 1 and discovery+ from 17:00, with BBC Radio 5 Live and talkSPORT 2 providing radio commentary.

The Prediction

Newcastle will fancy their chances of progressing from this tie, but avoiding defeat in hostile territory is the priority heading into the second leg at St James' Park. Both teams finding the net has been the pattern in Newcastle's last five away games across all competitions, and that trend looks likely to continue here. Over 3.5 goals also presents an interesting proposition.

Gordon's Champions League form suggests he's a strong bet to score or assist, while for Qarabag, Duran—their standout player with four goals in the competition—represents their biggest threat going forward.