Why Marc Guehi's Path Leads to Liverpool Despite City and Arsenal Circling

The Marc Guehi transfer carousel has been spinning for over two years now, and it shows no signs of stopping. Newcastle's three failed attempts in 2024 feel like ancient history compared to Liverpool's last-minute collapse last summer and Manchester City's latest scramble to land the Palace centre-back this month.

What's beyond doubt is that Guehi will depart Selhurst Park before next season, with his contract winding down and Europe's elite queuing up. The real drama isn't whether he's leaving – it's where he'll end up, and whether Palace can extract a transfer fee from the England international.

Credit to Palace's hierarchy for standing firm. They've weathered the storm of interest from rival clubs without cracking under pressure, holding the line on their valuation. Last summer, that figure was £40m – a price point that seemed clear to everyone watching from the outside. Sell for that, and Guehi would be off.

Yet Liverpool's dithering over Alexander Isak meant they bungled their approach to Guehi, who should have been their priority all along. Despite the player's reported insistence that he only wanted Anfield, Arne Slot's side played the waiting game too long. Palace pulled the plug on deadline day, rightly refusing to sell without securing a replacement before the window shut.

That defensive woe has become even more painful for Liverpool as the competition intensifies. Manchester City, now dealing with injuries to Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiola, have entered the fray with increased desperation and willingness to push the boat out. But Sam Lee from The Athletic has offered insight into Guehi's actual thinking.

According to Lee's sources – one with knowledge of both City and Palace – Guehi prefers to stay put until summer and harbours a preference for Liverpool. Another contact suggested the same, though mentioning Arsenal as an option rather than City. The picture looks muddled, but it shouldn't be.

Strip away the noise, and the reality becomes clearer. A Liverpool move remains the strong favourite, just as it appeared throughout last summer's window.

Guehi has already agreed terms with Liverpool and had one foot through the Anfield door before the deal imploded on deadline day. Nothing's changed in their defensive department since then – he remains their top target. The player's preference is unlikely to have shifted either.

Beyond that, it's still strategically sound for Guehi to wait until summer. A move in January limits his options and his earning potential through signing-on fees. Come June, he'll have leverage and choice. Add to that the fact he'd find a clearer path to regular football at Liverpool than he would at City or Arsenal, and the logic points firmly towards Merseyside.

Despite all the chatter suggesting uncertainty, this saga's ending looks increasingly predetermined.