Forest Look to Seal European Progress Against Injury-Hit Fenerbahce

Nottingham Forest sit in the driving seat as they prepare to host Fenerbahce in Thursday's Europa League play-off second leg, armed with a three-goal cushion from their impressive 3-0 victory in Istanbul.

Murillo, Igor Jesus, and Morgan Gibbs-White were on target in that opening contest, securing a commanding advantage that represents an excellent start to Vitor Pereira's tenure at the City Ground. The Turkish side will require a minor miracle to overturn the deficit and progress to face either Real Betis or FC Midtjylland in the last 16.

Forest's form has been patchy elsewhere, though. A strong showing against Liverpool at home ended in heartbreak when Alexis Mac Allister's 97th-minute strike snatched all three points for the visitors. The Reds now languish in 17th place in the Premier League, with attention turning to a weekend fixture at Brighton & Hove Albion.

Fenerbahce, meanwhile, served up some late-game drama of their own on Monday. Marco Asensio looked to have secured victory against Kasimpasa with a 95th-minute goal, only for the opposition—down to ten men—to level in the 101st minute. That rollercoaster result leaves the Turkish outfit facing an uphill battle.

Pereira's Hand Unchanged

The Forest manager has shown faith in consistency, naming identical starting elevens in his first two matches in charge. Stefan Ortega will continue between the sticks, with Matz Selz and John Victor both sidelined through injury—Victor's knee problem ruling him out for the remainder of the season.

Chris Wood and Willy Boly remain long-term absentees, while Nicolo Savona has been absent for seven consecutive matches across all competitions. Luca Netz and Taiwo Awoniyi were omitted from the squad registration for European competition, rendering them unavailable.

Four players—Morgan Gibbs-White, Elliot Anderson, Ryan Yates, and Igor Jesus—sit on a yellow-card precipice, one caution away from suspension in this competition.

Expected Forest XI: Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Sangare; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus.

Tedesco's Injury Crisis

Fenerbahce's injury woes have spiralled since the first leg. Milan Skriniar departed early in Istanbul with a groin problem and faces three to four weeks on the sidelines. Caglar Soyuncu stepped in as a replacement but subsequently picked up an injury against Kasimpasa.

Fred and Jayden Oosterwolde both received yellow cards in the first leg and are suspended, with Oosterwolde also nursing a fresh injury. Ederson and Anderson Talisca are ruled out through hamstring issues, while Anthony Musaba and Mert Gunok were excluded from the squad registration entirely.

Domenico Tedesco may be forced to improvise in defence, potentially deploying Mert Muldur or Matteo Guendouzi in makeshift central-back roles.

Expected Fenerbahce XI: Cetin; Semedo, Demir, Muldur, Brown; Guendouzi, Kante; Nene, Asensio, Akturkoglu; Cherif.

The Numbers Stack Up

The statistical picture overwhelmingly favours the hosts. Fenerbahce have never recovered from a first-leg defeat in any 26 knockout ties throughout their European history. They've also failed to progress from their last four knockout encounters with English opposition, having fallen to Arsenal (twice), Chelsea, and Aston Villa.

Their record on English soil in European competition reads poorly: just one win from ten away matches, that solitary victory coming 30 years ago at Manchester United in October 1996.

Forest, conversely, are hunting three consecutive major European wins—a feat last achieved during the 1983-84 UEFA Cup campaign. They've scored 18 goals across nine Europa League matches this season, surpassed only by their 1978-79 European Cup triumph when they netted 19 in nine games.

The defensive record at the City Ground has been equally impressive, conceding just three goals across the group stage while posting clean sheets against Porto, Malmo, and Ferencvaros.

Igor Jesus leads the Europa League's scoring charts this season and has now registered seven goals in the competition—a new club record for a major European campaign, eclipsing Gary Birtles' six from the 1978-79 European Cup-winning run.

Prediction and Betting

Despite their struggles domestically, Forest have thrived in European competition and hold all the advantages heading into this tie. Fenerbahce's need to attack from the opening whistle should leave them vulnerable to the counter-attack.

Forest have maintained clean sheets in their last three Europa League home matches, suggesting a win to nil at 37/19 represents solid value. They've also scored at least twice in all four home Europa League fixtures this season, making over 1.5 home goals at 8/13 an attractive proposition.

Gibbs-White delivered a man-of-the-match display in the first leg, contributing a goal and an assist. He's available at 6/5 to score or assist once more. Jesus, facing a makeshift defence, can be backed at 13/8 to find the net at any point.

Kick-off Details

The match gets underway at 20:00 (UK time) on Thursday, February 26 at the City Ground. TNT Sports 1 and discovery+ will broadcast proceedings, with coverage commencing at 19:30. TalkSPORT 2 will provide full commentary coverage.