Arsenal's Set-Piece Arsenal Could Prove Decisive at City Ground

Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to the City Ground on Saturday lunchtime with the Gunners in imperious form and the hosts desperately seeking points in their relegation scrap.

Arsenal's position at the summit looks increasingly commanding. A six-point buffer sits between them and the chasing pack, and they've tasted defeat just once in all competitions since August. The 0-0 stalemate with Liverpool last weekend did little damage, particularly given Manchester City's recent wobble of three consecutive draws in the league.

The Gunners have enjoyed a stellar week in the domestic cups, dismantling Portsmouth 4-1 in the FA Cup third round and edging Chelsea 3-2 in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final on their travels. This fixture represents their third consecutive away game, with a Champions League trip to Inter scheduled for Tuesday evening.

Forest, by contrast, find themselves in far murkier circumstances. Their FA Cup campaign ended in heartbreak on Friday when they fell to Wrexham on penalties in round three. That leaves Premier League survival as the overriding concern. Yet there's a glimmer of encouragement: their 2-1 victory at West Ham fortnight ago has afforded them a seven-point cushion over the Hammers, even if they remain stuck in 17th place.

Team News

Sean Dyche will welcome back Willy Boly and Ibrahim Sangare following their Afcon commitments, whilst Ryan Yates could feature after recovering from a thigh problem. Oleksandr Zinchenko remains ineligible to face his parent club, though he hasn't featured in the starting XI anyway. Chris Wood, last season's leading marksman, continues his rehabilitation from a knee injury and remains absent.

Dyche made wholesale changes for the FA Cup tie, suggesting he may revert to the eleven that conquered West Ham. The expected Forest XI: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Dominguez; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Jesus.

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta signalled the return of David Raya in goal and Gabriel Martinelli in attack following his Portsmouth hat-trick. Viktor Gyokeres, who netted against Chelsea, appears likely to retain his starting berth ahead of the fit-again Gabriel Jesus. The anticipated Gunners line-up: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.

The Numbers

Forest have lost eight of their last ten Premier League encounters with Arsenal, though both exceptions arrived at home since their 2022 return to the division. Arsenal have managed clean sheets in each of their last three league meetings with the Tricky Trees—their longest such run against this opponent.

Only West Ham and Wolves have surrendered more Premier League home games this season than Forest's six defeats. It represents the club's joint-worst record from their opening ten home fixtures of a league campaign.

Arsenal's blank against Liverpool was only their second scoreless league outing since the start of 2022-23. The Gunners have plundered 14 set-piece goals this term—more than any other side in the Premier League—whilst Forest have conceded 13 from dead-ball situations, bettered only by Bournemouth's 14.

Morgan Gibbs-White has scored in his last two league games and leads Forest's scoring charts with five goals. Dyche's sides have never mustered more than one goal against Arsenal in a Premier League match across 19 encounters, and he's managed just two victories in those 19 meetings.

Bukayo Saka leads the division in direct involvement in shots following a ball carry, with 33 instances (19 shots, 14 chances created).

The Verdict

Forest remain in a precarious position despite their West Ham scalp. A positive result here would provide genuine relief, yet Dyche's poor Arsenal record and the hosts' disappointing home form this season paint a bleak picture.

Arsenal, meanwhile, continue their upward trajectory. The smart money rests with the Gunners grinding out another three points. Arsenal to win 1-0 at 13/5 holds appeal, though 2-1 at 17/2 merits consideration as a correct scoreline.

Forest's vulnerability from set-pieces should have Arsenal's towering defenders rubbing their hands together. Gabriel Magalhaes, consistently targeted from dead-ball deliveries, represents an intriguing punt at 23/10 for over 0.5 shots on target. The Brazilian has netted twice in five games since returning from injury, making the 4/1 odds to score anytime worth serious consideration.