Newcastle Ready to Waltz Into Last 16 Against Toothless Qarabag

The Magpies have one foot firmly in the Champions League last 16 already, courtesy of a demolition job in Baku where Anthony Gordon's four-goal haul, combined with efforts from Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy, secured a devastating 6-1 victory in the opening encounter.

Completing the formality at St James' Park on Tuesday evening should present no serious obstacles, with the winner facing either Barcelona or Chelsea in the knockout stages. That said, Newcastle's momentum took a dent at the weekend when they suffered a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City in the Premier League, ending a three-game winning streak.

Qarabag, meanwhile, have barely kicked a ball since that humbling in Azerbaijan. Their domestic fixture against Neftchi was postponed to afford them additional recovery time—though quite what they'll recover from remains unclear given the scoreline.

Team News and Selection Headaches

Eddie Howe faces a minor selection puzzle courtesy of the yellow card accumulation. Thiaw picked up his third booking of the campaign in Baku and must sit out this tie, while both Dan Burn and Joelinton sit on two cautions apiece and will need to avoid any recklessness if they're to feature in the Round of 16 proper.

The defensive cupboard remains relatively bare. Fabian Schar won't return until April with an ankle complaint, while Emil Krafth is finished for the season following knee surgery. Tino Livramento and Bruno Guimaraes are nursing hamstring issues, and Lewis Miley continues his rehabilitation from a leg injury.

Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa could feature after missing the previous three matches, though Howe is unlikely to push his luck in what amounts to a dead rubber. The manager may instead hand opportunities to promising academy talent including Leo Shahar, Alex Murphy, and Sean Neave.

The Visitors' Predicament

Qarabag's injury list is comparatively light. Bahlul Mustafazade limped off before half-time in the first leg with a muscle strain and faces an extended spell sidelined. Dani Bolt, a right-back, filled in at centre-back as his replacement and could retain that role, though Badavi Huseynov and Samy Mmaee represent more conventional options. Back-up keeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev is their only other absentee.

The Stats Tell a Brutal Story

The numbers paint a damning picture for the Azerbaijani side. No team in major European competition history has lost the opening leg of a two-legged knockout tie by five goals and progressed. English clubs have won nine of ten fixtures against Qarabag in major European competition (with one draw), accumulating 33 goals to Qarabag's two across those victories.

When Qarabag have travelled to England previously—five occasions in all—they've lost every single match by an aggregate of 1-19, failing to register a goal in each of their last four visits.

Newcastle, should they prevail here, will record their sixth Champions League victory of the campaign, surpassing their five from the 2002-03 season. Gordon's 10-goal tally in this year's competition ranks him among the elite English performers, trailing only Ruud van Nistelrooy's 12 for Manchester United in 2002-03 and Erling Haaland's dozen for Manchester City in 2022-23.

The Magpies have now scored in 11 consecutive Champions League matches this season—25 goals in total. Only Bayern Munich, currently on a 15-game streak, have a longer active run.

What to Expect

Expect Newcastle to establish control early and render this contest academic by half-time, much as they did in Baku when they led 5-0 at the interval. Howe's men will likely shuffle their pack, but the gulf in quality should remain evident.

Newcastle have conceded in their last nine outings across all competitions, so Qarabag may find the odd opening, though converting such chances represents another matter entirely. William Osula, set for a rare start, should find space aplenty against a fragile backline.

A comfortable Newcastle victory appears inevitable—the only question is the margin.