Merson: Arsenal's Title Hopes Rest on Newcastle Victory This Weekend

Paul Merson has laid out exactly what Arsenal need to do if they're to have any realistic chance of winning the Premier League title in what's shaping up to be a thrilling climax to the 2025/26 season.

The Gunners have endured a difficult spell, losing consecutively to AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City. Pep Guardiola's side now sit atop the table on goal difference, with just five matches left to play. Yet Arsenal aren't out of it yet—and Merson reckons the next fortnight could be decisive.

Arsenal have a scheduling advantage over their rivals, playing twice before City get their next fixture. Victory over Newcastle this weekend, followed by a win against Fulham, would put them back in the driver's seat and heap the pressure squarely on City's shoulders. For Merson, this is non-negotiable.

"Arsenal play twice before City do and could go six points clear again – and they've got to make that count. They have to win those two games against Newcastle and Fulham to put the pressure back on City. It's a must," he told Sky Sports.

City's remaining fixtures don't look particularly daunting on paper, though Merson isn't convinced they'll be steamrolling opponents. Everton and Brentford—both chasing European qualification—are genuinely tricky opponents, and Merson believes the likes of Bournemouth will also prove stubborn to break down.

"City's last five games? They don't look too hard for them. They've got Everton and Brentford – two teams fighting for Europe – but two of their other games are absolutely gimmes," Merson explained. "City didn't rip Burnley up by four or five, they're not going to do that against Everton in their next game."

The fascinating subplot here is goal difference. City currently lead Arsenal solely on that measure, meaning the Gunners could theoretically win every remaining game and still fall short if Guardiola's side maintain their superior goal difference. It's a peculiar position to be in—and Merson knows the sting of that scenario all too well.

"City are above Arsenal only because they've scored more goals. So there is still a possibility of Arsenal winning every game and still losing the title due to City scoring more than them!" he noted. "Imagine losing a league title simply because you scored fewer goals? That would hurt."

The former Arsenal striker drew on personal experience, recalling his own title-winning campaign in 1989. "Well, I won the league with Arsenal in 1989 because we scored more goals than Liverpool, and I can tell you it's only a good feeling if you win!"

As for Saturday's clash with Newcastle, Merson is backing Arsenal to prevail 2-0—but he's left no room for sentiment about what happens if they don't. "Arsenal don't win this game, it's all over in the title race," he declared. "They are literally in last chance saloon now."

Still, Merson refuses to treat the fixture as a done deal. Newcastle have proven to be a tricky opponent in recent seasons, and the unpredictability of derby-style encounters means nothing should be taken for granted. Arsenal have the talent and the opportunity to reignite their title push, but the window for doing so is rapidly closing.