Man City FFP Verdict Could Come Before Summer, Says Expert – But Points Deduction This Season "Very Unlikely"

Manchester City's lengthy Financial Fair Play saga could be heading toward a resolution sooner than expected, with fresh details emerging about the structure and timeline of their independent commission hearing.

The defending champions are defending themselves against more than 100 allegations of breaching the Premier League's Financial Fair Play regulations. The probe, which began in early 2022, examined the club's conduct spanning 2009 to 2018.

While City face potentially severe sanctions if found guilty, they have maintained their innocence throughout the process. The matter has cast a long shadow over the club, particularly after reports suggested a 60-point deduction could be imposed before the season's end – effectively condemning them to relegation.

Football finance expert Stefan Borson has poured cold water on such scenarios, explaining that the hearing structure makes this outcome almost impossible this term.

"The idea that there's going to be a points deduction is unlikely because of everything we've spoken about before in terms of the process where you have two parts to it, one liability, one sanction," Borson told Football Insider. "Sanction can't come until you've established liability – whether they did it or not and what they did."

The key insight centres on what Borson describes as a "split trial" – a two-stage process where the commission must first determine guilt before moving to penalties. According to information from The Lawyer, a publication with close connections to the legal profession involved in such cases, this structure is now the working model.

"It's very unlikely that they would have spent let's say a quarter of the hearing talking about sanction when there's such a range of outcomes that were there, so the strong likelihood is that it was a split trial," Borson explained.

This means the immediate focus is purely on liability – establishing whether City breached regulations and to what extent – rather than determining punishments.

However, even a liability verdict won't signal the end of the road. Borson cautioned that the sanction phase will require substantial additional time once the initial ruling arrives.

"The bit that most people still don't realise is once that comes in, that will be very long in itself and will need people to be given the time to digest it," he said. "But then it also means that the hearing that follows on the sanction is going to take some time to accommodate. Clearly, the barristers who are involved are going to have to find time in their diaries. The independent commission are going to have to find time in their diaries, and then there's also the question of whether there's going to be an appeal that sits before the sanction part."

Despite these complications, Borson believes there remains a realistic chance of a liability decision arriving before the close of the summer transfer window.

"Overall, there's a strong chance to be honest that we do get something on liability before the summer," he concluded, though he acknowledged uncertainty about what such a verdict would ultimately mean for City's future.