City's Guehi Gamble: £25m Emerges as the Price That Might Actually Get Done

Manchester City are actively considering a January move for Marc Guehi as injury problems mount at the Etihad, but the numbers don't quite add up—and everyone knows it.

The Palace captain is out of contract this summer, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid all queuing up for a free transfer. So why would Pep Guardiola's side cough up cash now? Simple: Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol's injury troubles have left them short-handed. Dias is expected to sideline for six weeks, while Gvardiol's tibial fracture casts serious doubt over his availability for the remainder of the campaign. City have already recalled 19-year-old Max Alleyne from Watford, throwing him straight into action against Brighton and Exeter—where he scored in a 10-1 demolition—but clearly the club wants more experience at the back.

The sticking point? City are apparently mulling a bid around £35m. That's a hefty price for a player who'll walk out the door for nothing come summer.

According to Stefan Borson, the former Manchester City financial adviser, that's precisely why the real negotiating ground sits far lower. Speaking to Football Insider, Borson reckons Palace would struggle to reject £25m by the time we reach the end of January, particularly if they've exhausted their fixture list before the window slams shut.

"You're basically saying, 'You can either have the player for maybe 15 league games and some Conference League games, or you can have £25m,'" Borson explained. "I think you're going to take £25m. Maybe at £20m you're thinking about it, definitely at £15m you keep him. But at £20-25m, I don't think they're turning it down."

Borson also dismissed the notion of City paying north of £40m, which would effectively mirror what they'd shell out in signing-on fees alone if they waited until summer. That mathematics simply doesn't work for any club seriously considering a winter outlay.

"I don't see City or anybody else paying more than around £40m," he added. "That's pretty much equivalent to what the deal would cost in the summer anyway. So the sweet spot really sits somewhere in that £25-30m range."

The broader picture, though, suggests this whole saga might be decided long before next summer's transfer window opens. Bayern Munich, according to reports from Foot Mercato, currently hold the advantage over their English rivals. The Bundesliga champions have Guehi's stated preference working in their favour—the 25-year-old is keen on a move to Germany—and unlike City, Bayern's strategy is purely focused on landing him as a free agent.

Guehi has been one of the Premier League's standout centre-backs over the past two-and-a-half seasons, so the continental interest is hardly surprising. Liverpool are believed to be leading the English race after coming close to signing him last summer, but with Bayern seemingly in pole position and the player apparently leaning toward the Bundesliga, this one could well be decided in the summer rather than January.