Rosenior's Chelsea Debut: Can Charlton Pull Off The Valley Upset?

Liam Rosenior is about to discover what it's like managing Chelsea in the FA Cup after watching from the stands as his new club crashed to a 2-1 defeat at Fulham. The 41-year-old's baptism of fire comes in a London derby at The Valley on Saturday evening, where he'll attempt to steer the Blues past a Charlton side fighting for Championship survival.

It's been 19 years since Chelsea last graced The Valley in competitive action. Back in 2007, Frank Lampard's solitary strike secured a 1-0 victory for the visitors – a reminder of the gulf that typically separates these two clubs.

Charlton's season has been a rollercoaster. They sat fifth after a dramatic injury-time winner over West Brom in early November, but a torrid run has dragged them down to 19th. However, there are glimmers of encouragement. A 1-1 draw with leaders Coventry on New Year's Day was followed by a 2-2 stalemate at Blackburn where the hosts led 2-0, suggesting Michael Flynn's men may be finding their feet again.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have been equally unconvincing. Just two victories from their last 11 outings tells its own story – five draws and four defeats paint a picture of a team going through the motions during what should be a title-challenging campaign.

Team News

Charlton's injury list is a headache for Nathan Jones, with Onel Hernandez, Kayne Ramay, Matty Godden and Josh Edwards sidelined. Jones will deploy a 3-5-2 formation, with strikers Miles Leaburn and Charlie Kelman – who bagged two at Blackburn – leading the charge.

Rosenior's first teamsheet will likely see wholesale changes. Filip Jorgensen replaces Robert Sanchez in goal, while Jorrel Hato comes in at left-back for the suspended Marc Cucurella. The manager will hand opportunities to Andrey Santos, Estevao Willian, Jamie Gittens and Marc Guiu, with Reece James and Cole Palmer getting a breather.

The Numbers Game

The statistics heavily favour Chelsea. They've won 61 of their last 63 FA Cup ties against lower-division opposition, including an astonishing 22 consecutive victories. Only Barnsley (2007-08 quarter-final) and Bradford City (2014-15 fourth round) have managed to upset that applecart in recent memory.

When these sides met in the Premier League in 2007, Chelsea claimed a 1-0 win. The Addicks have lost eight of their last 11 encounters with their London neighbours across all competitions, winning just once.

In FA Cup meetings specifically, Chelsea have demolished Charlton twice – both 3-0 victories in the fourth round of 1962-63 and third round of 1994-95.

Charlton's FA Cup record is equally grim. They've failed to progress from the third round in each of their last five attempts, with their last fourth-round appearance coming in 2013-14 when they beat Oxford United in a replay.

The Prediction

For all Charlton's recent improvement, this represents a steep mountain to climb. Chelsea simply don't lose matches of this nature – the statistics make uncomfortable reading for the hosts. The Blues' young attacking talent will be desperate to impress, and a Charlton side that's conceded the third-joint lowest number of goals at home in the Championship this season won't exactly fancy their chances against a Chelsea side with everything to prove.

Estevao has found the net in each of his last four Cup games for Chelsea – three in the Champions League and one in the Carabao – suggesting the Brazilian wonderkid could be a shrewd selection for those backing goalscorers.

Chelsea to win without conceding looks the smart play here, though history suggests this won't be a particularly thrilling affair for neutral observers.